Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 11.459894 13.406254 15.529267 18.009954 20.821716 23.902337 27.525238
2025-01-12 8.277718 10.891547 14.027345 18.033599 22.979666 28.847589 36.293585
2025-01-19 6.293797 9.172997 12.920111 18.076301 24.897841 33.515160 45.110134
2025-01-26 5.396788 8.567970 12.981307 19.428166 28.434426 40.376291 57.174806
2025-02-02 4.601527 7.899111 12.774301 20.282045 31.277780 46.473242 68.663448
2025-02-09 3.978618 7.339014 12.587637 21.060858 33.996733 52.525643 80.464511
2025-02-16 3.320692 6.580337 11.954500 21.035870 35.460471 56.831201 90.031547
2025-02-23 2.700580 5.753860 11.067366 20.458828 35.960110 59.680743 97.589692
2025-03-02 2.170307 4.975225 10.126827 19.642611 35.944016 61.672679 103.908253
2025-03-09 1.842186 4.513770 9.663962 19.555851 37.061185 65.438888 113.106094
2025-03-16 1.542354 4.044432 9.108954 19.220843 37.695274 68.432481 121.219766
2025-03-23 1.424920 3.944590 9.245123 20.153354 40.579508 75.246897 135.795306
2025-03-30 1.254334 3.696481 9.065112 20.497376 42.502230 80.682324 148.615638
2025-04-06 1.079788 3.400492 8.743235 20.530128 43.866834 85.276391 160.350477
2025-04-13 0.932528 3.137520 8.449927 20.579983 45.256874 89.991724 172.548809
2025-04-20 0.900348 3.176580 8.840647 22.090229 49.559432 100.099526 194.518582
2025-04-27 0.835024 3.106989 8.966683 23.043093 52.835045 108.536616 213.982499
2025-05-04 0.771099 3.026055 9.052240 23.911494 55.999281 116.934578 233.767421
2025-05-11 0.670417 2.804789 8.754776 23.883674 57.329458 122.000169 247.831025
2025-05-18 0.557962 2.510879 8.219929 23.240369 57.315788 124.517024 257.378450
2025-05-25 0.453709 2.209170 7.607510 22.329922 56.640522 125.699831 264.496118
2025-06-01 0.392514 2.043977 7.343266 22.233113 57.710913 130.319160 278.208813
2025-06-08 0.331943 1.859081 6.987565 21.859230 58.125896 133.647735 289.614406